Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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🤥 THE TRUTH ABOUT JAPAN (+ IMPACT--> REST OF THE WORLD) 📌🔴 BEING A FAN OF MOST things Japanese, I point out inconvenient truths standing in the way of prosperity. They blame others for a six year recession.🤝 MY FIRST EVER business deal (1984) signed at Windows of the World (WTC) with Mitsubishi. Awesome culture. Poor industrial policy/ governance.👉JAPANESE POINT TO external risks that scuppers their latest plan to pull out of a depressionary spiral. Exporting their way into prosperity is over.✅ 10Y JGB bond yields trending down (and they can't raise rates)✅ their labor demand is down (and labor is much cheaper in Mexico)✅ M2 money stock (credit proxy) is up 1.3 % (lowest since April 2007) and,✅ funding draining out of equity funds at a record rate [my Friday post]🤔 WE ALL KNOW what started in spring 2007. Japan's Business Index of Economic Activity is heading lower than 2020. Intertwined with global markets on every level: Fx, fund flows--everything. Blaming USA election? Silly.#Japan #Bubble #JGB #carrytrade #DXY #M2 #recession #depression #JGB #manufacturing
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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#EURODOLLARUNIVERSITY goes on to day that the global synchronization has even spread to the subcontinent. India is still a long term player, but it cannot buttress the entire global economy in 2025; but it has a lot going for it:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mGv6StBbOA
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WoW Health
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It's interesting that you highlight Japan's internal issues as significant contributors to their economic challenges, rather than solely focusing on external factors.
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Roman Wenzl MBA MBA
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They have been kicking the can down the road for 20 years, now the run out of road.
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Mike Terpstra
Vice President at Global Blue Tech
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Thanks Brian
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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🏁⛔RACE TO THE CLOSE: BAC LOCKS IT UP 🔒🔒BANK OF AMERICA on a branch-closing binge, well ahead of all peers. Note: Citi, Truist, regionals not in tally below as they are not nation-wide retail banks.🔒BAC IS TURNING more and more into a "direct bank" meaning that depositors interact with them via ATM, telephony and internet banking. If there is no branch nearby. 3,800 "financial centers" (aka branches)and 15,000 ATMs.🔒 A CONVENIENT MOAT to prevent "runs" as clients would be limited to daily ATM withdrawal limits. An industry-wide shell game, big sister JPM Chase is down to only 4,700 branches and falling. Read more [comment] below.#BAC #RetailBanking #branchclosures #bankruns #JPM
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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🌊👻SCARY TRUTH ABOUT TOTAL GOV'T SPENDING ⬆️⬆️⬆️ 👋 A VIDEO SHORT from an economist about why stagflation is so destructive. Not about consumer spending nor corporate greed, it's all about government spending. "Great Society" profligacy under LBJ opened the first Pandora's box. Blamed on POTUS39. Lately, 2020 opened the second such box.🎃HALLOWEEN IS THE NEXT PCE print, the Fed's preferred metric for "their" notion of inflation. Personal Consumption Expenditures, aka "blame the spendthrift consumer". Payroll employment (+254,000), rebuilds > back to back storms, port strike and energy spikes may combine to reignite inflation. 👻PONDERING FINANCELOT'S SCARY stuff. Only 13/ 138 sovereign nations have positive ratings outlooks; most of the 13 now rated below USA (< AA+).So what if October Surprises(s) come along to knock ratings down:1) USA CREDIT DOWNGRADE (from AA+) so nations dump US T bonds2) RAPID SPIKE in long term rates (signal: 10Y yield is stubbornly > 4%)3) SWAP LINES PULLED---> Dollar shortage (slamming EUR, CHF et al)4) EXOGENOUS SHOCK precipitates an emerg response (e.g. Lehman event)5) "SAFE HAVEN" USD rockets up (DXY second biggest component is EUR)6) CONTAGION SPREADS; for example Japan + Europe implode in tandem7) NATIONS UNABLE to secure USD to pay debt, thrust into default7) ACCELERATED PRINTING to oblivion (DXY up, up....then $ vanishes)8) NEW SYSTEM to the rescue (disguised CBDC, Gemara/Nesara whatever)🌈 🦋HAPPY ENDING TO THE "STAG STORY"? Let's see what the next few weeks bring. A little deflation around now might be welcome (but be careful about letting that particular genie out of the bottle):https://lnkd.in/gEiYrnNA#sovereigns #financelot #deflation #inflation #Ratings #MiltonFriedman
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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🔴 THIS IS HOW IT (OFTEN) STARTS....🔴 LARGEST ONE WEEK DECLINE in the history of Japan equity fund flows. Nikkei225 performance masks what is happening behind the facade.🌊🌀IN ONE WEEK, $8.8bn flowed out of funds...the August 5th NIKKEI puke may soon return. They can only prop up JPY or the equity index (not both).༄ WATCH THE WARREN. At least they have Toyota still standing. #BRK #SogoShosha #WarrenBuffett #EquityFunds #Japan #topix #JPY #JGB #Toyota
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Brian Byrne
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TRUTH ABOUT ALTERNATIVE ASSETSBRILLIANT explanation of why metals finally made their moves.are capital controls coming?Au thinks so...
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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🚨BREAKING🚨CHECKMATE: SILVER ASSAULT--WHO IS IN THE 𖥠 🪙 𖥠 🇷🇺MAJOR NEWS: ROUBLE is now to be backed by Ag along with other commodities, even jewels. Both a defensive + offensive tactic. It's official.𐀏 🇷🇺MARCH 2022: LAST ROUBLE plunge > February kinetic action. Later linked to Au via oil. By-passing sanctions, end-running export restrictions. 𐀏 🪙 LINING for a now floundering Rouble: backing with this industrial/ monetary commodity. Striking at "safe haven" fiats (CHF-backed by Alpine air).🇨🇭FROZEN OUT: earlier this year, CH banks froze CHF 5.8 bn ($6.3 bn) of assets belonging to sanctioned oligarchs > fleeing Credit Suisse. Revenge a dish best served cold: "favor" about to be returned. Aka asymmetric warfare.𖥠 BLOOMBERG CONFIRMS hot news overshadowed by USA weather:“According to a report released by Interfax this week and cited by Bloomberg, Russia’s Draft Federal Budget outlines plans to significantly bolster its holdings in precious metals over coming years,” the report said. “The budget includes plans to acquire gold, platinum, palladium, and, for the first time, SILVER.”🪙 A KEY INDUSTRIAL AND MONETARY metal, news is already lifting Ag above $30/oz. It's finite. Swap-lines between Switzerland <--> USA vulnerable. Used to keep Swiss banks solvent and USA tech names inflated. [see prior posts].#Fx #silver #commoditybacking #AndySchechtman #AndyMilette #mBridge #TheUnit #monetarystrategy #wargaming #CHF #soundmoney
Russia's Bold Silver Move: A Game Changer for the Commodities Market? https://www.youtube.com/
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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👀BEST BANK REVEAL: GEORGE GAMMON RIPS BACK CURTAIN 🙈🤏🤏WFC AND JPM sleight of hand, lackluster prints. Slightly beat expectation. Wall St games "lowering expectations" < new quarter, a mirage of "winning".🤞"HIGHER FUNDING COSTS" is bank-speak for "we're spending more to prevent deposits from walking". JPM profit is from trading and I-banking so WFC is the real mirror on American consumer health. Not at all "glossy". 😬 BANKS NERVOUS ABOUT depositors "waking up" to realize that WFC/ JPM earn 5.25% risk free (at FRB) but offer a paltry .1 (one basis point) for your hard earned money. As "we" wake up, entities like BAC draw the ire of BRK.💚💎 BRANDING TO THE RESCUE: "Saphire Account" or "Premier Savings" or "VIP" head fakes to make people think they are not losing purchasing power.🔜 BOTTOM LINE, George asserts that the cost of yield curve inversion is stealthily passed along TO DEPOSITORS. Risks laid off to guess who? #RebelCapitalist #GeorgeGammon #riskmanagement #yieldcurve #purchasingpower #WFC #JPM #BRK #funding #Branding
You Won't Believe What JP Morgan AND Wells Fargo Just Revealed https://www.youtube.com/
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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😮 💨WHY WARREN IS PIVOTING (TO HIS "NU" PLAY) 💨💨💸FUNDING (AKA DEPOSITS) is what keeps banks solvent along with Central Bank "help" (discount window, RR etc). BAC outflows accelerated mid-summer.🤑CLEARLY, BAC is having issues. No way of disguising insider sales and more.🤑WHY DIDN'T BUFFETT just puke it all at once? Dribbling trades means he could sell into a stable price, otherwise the volume of his "sell" would collapse the share price in one fell swoop. His new play? NU HOLDINGS (Brazil).💲NOW HOLDS < 10% of the float, no longer has to report each block. Only quarterly 10Q required. BAC position will be virtually gone by early 2025.👯A MEGA BANK MERGER is coming. Check out NU HOLDINGS [comment].More here: https://lnkd.in/gFE_qFDB#BAC #Mergers #BRK #WarrenBuffett #InsiderSales #funding #solvency #banks
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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😨PANIC SELLING > MILTON: THE SHARKS ARE OUT 🦈✊FIGHT OR FLIGHT: two most powerful human reflexes; weather shocks can trigger the latter as people flee and pronounce a city/area as "over":> Greater Miami after Andrew (1992)> Palm Beach County after Frances and Charlie (2004)> NoLA after Katrina (2005)🌴HAVING BEEN STRANDED in FL during Frances, it was a saga outrunning a storm (our SoBe hotel kicked us out, MIA closed, prompting evacuation by car to Naples). Only luck: we had just sold our two FL homes and a lot in 2004.🥷 RASH INVESTMENT decisions as Michael Burry reminds us are rarely the wisest. Supply surge precisely when demand is weakest. Predators descend, looking to buy up tracts for land value, bulldoze, rebuild as "resilient" enclaves.🤬LAST STRAW AFTER Ian (an insurance settlement nightmare). Barrier islands like Sanibel are still not back to "normal" (whatever that will be). Seems that insurance adjustors won't fund a total loss if there is a roof. Only a roof left.☀️BRIGHT SIDE for intrepid Floridians (and Blackrock), opportunities. There always are in RE. But all those old builds (pre-Andrew building code) will have to be torn down. A mammoth "smart building" boom is ahead for FL, a timely GDP boost. Tampa is to be transformed into a "smart city". More about that later.UPDATE: Helene and Milton, being two separate events, generated $100bn and $50bn, respectively, in losses (preliminary estimates). Insurers incentivized to be resistant to quick settlements, signs that they are rebuffing many claims:https://lnkd.in/g2xvAGXM#Florida #weather #insurance #realestate #Bradenton #Milton #hurricanes #Tampa #SmartCities #zillow
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Brian Byrne
Investment Committee Member at Assembler Growth Capital LLC
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WHAT MIGHT DRIVE CAD USD TO PARITY?THIS.....
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